A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
