Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
