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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly different. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans rising together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still